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What is the Energy Transition Outlook?

This annual Outlook, now in its fifth edition, presents the results from our independent model of the world’s energy system.

This annual Outlook presents the results from our independent model of the world’s energy system. It covers the period through to 2050 and forecasts the energy transition globally and in 10 world regions. Our forecast data may be accessed at eto.dnv.com/data. More details on our methodology and model can be found on page 34. The changes we forecast hold significant risks and opportunities across many industries.

Some of these are detailed in our supplements:

After five years of forecasting…

Our findings this year do not differ fundamentally to those of our first forecast issued four years ago. Over the years, we have extended and refined our model, for example by delving deeper into the dynamics of the key demand sectors of transport, manufacturing and buildings. We have also added additional energy carriers and sectors such as hydrogen, floating offshore wind and solar PV+storage, and introduced the modelling of power generation on an hourly basis. But one of our key findings – that the global energy mix will be split in roughly equal shares between fossil and non-fossil sources by 2050 – has not changed. Neither has our conclusion that the world will fail to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement by an alarming margin.

The fact that these findings have remained consistent is a major cause of concern: In a half-decade where the costs of inaction on climate change have been mounting and the evidence of its effects are growing ever more visible, it is sobering to reflect on the fact that the pace of the energy transition has not accelerated beyond our first forecast.

Independent view

DNV was founded 157 years ago to safeguard life, property and the environment. We are owned by a foundation and are trusted by a wide range of customers to advance the safety and sustainability of their businesses. 70% of our business is related to the production, generation, transmission and transport of energy. Developing an independent understanding of, and forecasting, the energy transition is of strategic importance to both us and our customers.

Contents

The Energy Transition Outlook 2021 covers:

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