The least carbon-intensive energy sector among major economies in the developing world
- Modern biofuels will grow strongly, especially in road transport.
- Electricity production from hydropower and fuel oil will diversify into natural gas, solar, and wind.
- Natural gas will be one third of the primary energy mix in 2050.
Latin America’s final energy demand has levelled off proportionally with economic stagnation, but will soon start increasing again. The largest increase in energy demand will come from buildings, as a result of population growth and an increase in income per capita leading to greater demand for appliances. There will also be growth in the energy demand from transport and manufacturing, although efficiency gains will have a dampening effect.
Oil, the region’s largest energy source, will see a slow reduction towards the end of the forecast period, when the uptake of EVs starts to accelerate. Natural gas will continue to grow, driven by demand from the manufacturing and power sectors, and will overtake oil as the largest primary energy source by around 2030. Coal will remain an insignificant energy source in the region, while renewables, led by biomass and hydropower, and supported by strong solar PV and wind growth, will supply 44% of primary energy by 2050.