Not fast enough

The transition we forecast is not fast enough

Global energy-related emissions will only peak in 2025, and emissions will not fall sufficiently by 2050 to bring global warming to well below 2ºC

Even with the rapid changes in decarbonization and energy intensity we forecast, CO2 emissions are still at about half of today’s level in 2050. Extrapolating the trends, DNV GL’s Outlook points towards a 2.4 degree warming of the planet by the end of this century, over the preindustrial average – a level considered dangerous by the IPCC and the world’s scientific community. 

Unpacking this, we forecast that the 1.5-degree carbon budget is exhausted in 2028; and humanity exceeds the 2-degree budget in 2049, with still-significant emissions by mid-century. The result is overshoot emissions above the 1.5-degree budget of some 770 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2050, and even higher towards 2100. 

DNV GL's Outlook points towards a 2.4ºC warming of the planet by the end of this century. 

The energy future we forecast is thus unequivocally not fast enough.