Energy Transition Outlook 2018

A forecast of the energy transition to 2050

The world’s energy system will become substantially cleaner, more affordable, and more reliable. Understanding this energy transition in detail is critical for businesses, investors, and regulators.

A strategy tool

This annual Outlook aims to assist analysts and decision makers in organizations involved directly or indirectly in the energy supply chain, to develop their future strategic options. 

It is a model-based forecast of the world’s energy system through to 2050. The Outlook gives our independent view of what we consider ’a most likely future’, or a central case, for the coming energy transition. The report covers:

  • Our main assumptions, on population, productivity, technology, costs, policy and resource limitations 
  • The model behind our forecast results 
  • Our findings on global energy supply, demand, energy carriers, expenditure, and energy infrastructure 
  • The effects of digitalization, technology and energy efficiency 
  • A regional view – forecasts for 10 world regions 
  • Issues to watch in the next 5 years 
  • The climate implications of our forecast

Our best estimate

We have constructed what we in DNV GL see as ’a most likely future’ for energy through to 2050. This contrasts with scenario-based approaches, where possible contrasting futures, including wishful scenarios are set up against each other. 

Amidst this growing profusion of different energy scenarios, many customers ask us quite simply what we think the is the most likely case. 

As an independent organization with wide expertise across the energy supply chain and equal exposure to both the fossil and renewable energy worlds, we have responded by producing an objective, balanced “most likely” view of the future.