Energy Transition Outlook 2017

A global and regional forecast of the energy transition to 2050

Over the next three decades the world’s energy system will decarbonize and change in many other ways. Understanding the energy future is critical for us in DNV GL, and for our stakeholders.

A strategy tool

Our main publication deals with our model-based forecast of the world’s energy system through to 2050. 

It gives our independent view of what we consider ’a most likely future’, or a central case, for the coming energy transition. The report covers: 

  • Our main assumptions, on population, productivity, technology, costs and the role of governments
  • The model behind our forecast results 
  • Our findings on global energy supply, demand and each of the energy carriers — and a sensitivity analysis  
  • Energy forecasts for each of our 10 world regions 
  • Issues to watch in the next 5 years 
  • The climate implications of our outlook 
  • Highlights from our supplementary reports

A central case

Our intention, from the outset, has been to construct what we in DNV GL see as ’a most likely

future’ for energy through to 2050. This contrasts with scenario-based approaches. Typically, scenarios are set up to contrast possible futures, for example varying the speed of the transition from the current energy mix to one dominated by renewables. As an organization with equal exposure to both the fossil and renewable energy worlds, our aim has been to produce a objective, balanced view of the future.

DNV GL was founded a little over 150 years ago with the purpose of safeguarding life property and the environment. We have a vision to have global impact for a safe and sustainable future. As such, DNV GL strongly supports the Paris Agreement, and the efforts of almost all the world’s countries to limit globalwarming from pre-industrial levels to well below 2°C.

Our outlook does not see the world on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate goal. We very much wish that this outlook pointed to a future where the risks and impacts of climate change will be significantly reduced, and where dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system is avoided. But our stated aim in building this outlook is to be fact based and to avoid wishful thinking.